Season Ticket Renewals
83b74dc4-a67f-4570-8484-681dec957047
All runs, fan cohorts, and outcomes shown here are produced by an autonomous synthetic simulation. No real teams, fans, or data are represented. This is a read-only view of persisted simulation output. Nothing on this page can be edited, approved, or promoted.
How to read this simulation
This page is an audit trail for one autonomous synthetic arena run. A strategy bot is stepping through a simulated season-ticket renewal scenario. Each tick is one saved simulation step. On each tick, the bot may take an action, fan cohorts react, KPI snapshots are persisted, and the updated run state is saved for the next cron or manual tick.
What happens on each tick?
- The run is claimed.
- The strategy bot reads the current scenario state.
- The bot applies deterministic strategy rules.
- One action is recorded.
- Each synthetic persona cohort reacts.
- KPI snapshots are saved.
- The updated run state is persisted for the next tick.
Glossary
- Strategy Bot
- The deterministic, rule-based program stepping through this scenario. Its decisions come from fixed configuration, not generated text.
- Tick
- One persisted simulation step. A 12-tick run is divided into 12 steps, advanced one at a time by a cron job or a manual smoke test.
- Action
- The single move the strategy bot made on a given tick: for example, sending a renewal offer or staying quiet for a cadence gap.
- KPI Snapshot
- A measurement (such as renewal rate or revenue attributed) recorded after a tick completes, so the run has a full time series, not just a final score.
- Cohort State
- The simulated state of one fan persona group after a tick: engagement, churn risk, and renewal likelihood at that point in the run.
- Renewal Likelihood
- The simulated probability, from 0–100, that a persona renews by the end of the run.
- Reaction
- A label describing how a cohort simulated responding to the latest action: for example, interested, ignored, or churn_risk_increased.
- Synthetic Disclosure
- A statement confirming that all personas, reactions, and metrics on this page are generated by simulation, not collected from real fans or real campaigns.
Latest Tick Summary
Latest Tick
12 / 12
Latest Action
Urgency Touch
Season Ticket Renewal Rate
62%
Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed
$362,974
Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort)
35 days before deadline
Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona
83%
All values above are synthetic simulation outputs, not real fan or revenue data.
Admin Control Panel
The controls below are the Scenario Arena admin surface. Pause / Resume, Advance 1 Tick, and Queue Variable Change are wired to real requests — all three are protected server-side and require an ARENA_ADMIN_SECRET header, which this panel sends only when you submit one of those controls. Queue Variable Change is audit-only — it records an audit event and does not change simulation behavior yet. Every other control below remains a preview or is not yet implemented; wiring them up is deferred to follow-up PRs.
Secret is held only in this browser component state and is not persisted. It is never written to localStorage, sessionStorage, a cookie, or a log. It is sent only as the x-arena-admin-secret header when you click Pause, Resume, or Advance 1 Tick, or submit Queue Variable Change.
○ Locked — enter a secret to unlock Pause/Resume, Advance 1 Tick, and Queue Variable Change
Pause / Resume
Pauses or resumes this run so the tick cron skips or resumes claiming it. Current state: not paused.
POST /api/arena/runs/83b74dc4-a67f-4570-8484-681dec957047/control
Advance 1 Tick
Manually runs one deterministic tick for this run, outside the cron schedule. Current tick: 12 / 12.
POST /api/arena/runs/83b74dc4-a67f-4570-8484-681dec957047/tick
Queue Variable Change
Records an audited request to change scenario variables. Audit event only — this does not change simulation behavior yet.
POST /api/arena/runs/83b74dc4-a67f-4570-8484-681dec957047/variable-events
Advance N Ticks
Advance several ticks in one request. Not yet implemented.
Run to Completion
Advance every remaining tick until the run completes. Not yet implemented.
Operator Event Timeline
These events show admin/operator interventions made during the synthetic run. They do not represent fan behavior. They explain when the simulation was paused, resumed, manually advanced, or when future variable changes were queued.
No operator control or variable-change events have been recorded for this run yet.
Strategy Bot
Renewal Bot Gamma
Runs the Recognition + Access Renewal Campaign variable set: low urgency, payment plans, recognition and player-access offers, playoff priority. Tests whether premium loyalty responds better to value beyond price.
Tick Progress
12 / 12
A tick is one persisted simulation step, not a real-world day, email, or fan interaction. Vercel Cron advances ticks automatically in production; manual smoke tests can also advance one. The final tick can complete the run and create a draft synthetic case study. Nothing is promoted automatically.
Created
Jun 30, 2026, 8:13 PM
Completed
Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM
KPI Snapshot Timeline
How to read this table: each row is one KPI measurement recorded after a tick completed. The same KPI reappears once per tick it was measured, so reading a single KPI top-to-bottom shows how that metric moved over the course of the run.
| Tick | KPI | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 36 days before deadline |
| 1 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 80% |
| 1 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 59% |
| 1 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $107,337 |
| 2 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 36 days before deadline |
| 2 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 81% |
| 2 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 60% |
| 2 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $164,434 |
| 3 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 36 days before deadline |
| 3 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 81% |
| 3 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 60% |
| 3 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $157,857 |
| 4 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 56 days before deadline |
| 4 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 81% |
| 4 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 60% |
| 4 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $162,952 |
| 5 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 56 days before deadline |
| 5 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 81% |
| 5 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 60% |
| 5 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $156,434 |
| 6 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 50 days before deadline |
| 6 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 81% |
| 6 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 61% |
| 6 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $168,563 |
| 7 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 50 days before deadline |
| 7 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 80% |
| 7 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 61% |
| 7 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $161,820 |
| 8 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 50 days before deadline |
| 8 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 82% |
| 8 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 62% |
| 8 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $224,630 |
| 9 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 50 days before deadline |
| 9 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 82% |
| 9 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 61% |
| 9 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $215,645 |
| 10 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 35 days before deadline |
| 10 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 81% |
| 10 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 62% |
| 10 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $213,820 |
| 11 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 35 days before deadline |
| 11 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 83% |
| 11 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 62% |
| 11 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $379,909 |
| 12 | Average Days to Renewal (At-Risk Cohort) | 35 days before deadline |
| 12 | Renewal Rate - Founding Loyalist Persona | 83% |
| 12 | Season Ticket Renewal Rate | 62% |
| 12 | Win-Back Journey Revenue Attributed | $362,974 |
Action Timeline
Action legend: what each label means
- Intervention Start (intervention_start)
- The first outreach of the run, introducing the renewal offer to every fan cohort.
- Cadence Touch (cadence_touch)
- A regularly scheduled touch sent between the intervention start and the deadline.
- Quiet Tick (quiet_tick)
- No outreach this tick — the campaign's cadence intentionally skipped this step.
- Service Recovery (service_recovery)
- A mid-run touch aimed at repairing trust with fans flagged for service recovery.
- Urgency Touch (urgency_touch)
- A final, deadline-driven touch sent near the end of the run.
- Build Behavioral ROI Report (build_behavioral_roi_report)
- Builds the partner ROI case around fan behavior — activation-to-purchase, app engagement lift, loyalty redemption — instead of media impressions. Also surfaces the sponsor health score.
- Map Persona–Partner Affinity (map_persona_partner_affinity)
- Maps which fan archetypes engage with which partner categories, to target activations at the cohorts that convert.
- Flag Partner Renewal Risk (flag_partner_renewal_risk)
- A mid-run touch that proactively flags a partner whose activation rate is declining, before the renewal conversation.
- Create Mid-Season Activation Report (create_midseason_activation_report)
- Produces a partner-facing mid-season activation report so the sponsor sees behavioral lift ahead of renewal.
- Reframe Renewal Proposal (reframe_renewal_proposal)
- A final-tick touch that reframes the renewal proposal around behavioral proof rather than reach.
- Present Media Metrics (present_media_metrics)
- The old-model touch: a reach-only media deck (impressions, signage, broadcast mentions) with no behavioral proof.
- Score Churn Risk (score_churn_risk)
- Scores early churn risk from behavioral signals such as attendance velocity, engagement decay, service sentiment, or purchase recency.
- Segment Win-Back Journey (segment_winback_journey)
- Routes at-risk fans into persona-specific retention journeys instead of one generic lapsed-fan campaign.
- Resolve Visit Friction (resolve_visit_friction)
- Targets practical friction, such as parking, family logistics, or venue uncertainty, before it turns into churn.
- Route Service Recovery (route_service_recovery)
- Sends service-issue cohorts into a recovery touch before dissatisfaction becomes a lapsed-fan outcome.
- Escalate High-LTV Outreach (escalate_high_ltv_outreach)
- Escalates valuable or relationship-managed fans to human outreach while the save window is still open.
- Send Venue Bridge Offer (send_venue_bridge_offer)
- Uses arena-event affinity to bridge a fan back into a low-friction sports attendance path.
- Launch Win-Back Offer (launch_winback_offer)
- Sends the late-stage reactivation offer for fans still at risk near the modeled lapse point.
- Send Generic Win-Back Blast (send_generic_winback_blast)
- The old-model retention touch: a generic discount blast sent after annual lapsed-fan classification.
- Flag Fan Churn Risk (flag_fan_churn_risk)
- A proactive mid-run flag that surfaces cohorts whose retention propensity needs intervention before lapse.
- Score Readiness to Convert (score_readiness_to_convert)
- Scores digital fans on readiness-to-convert from engagement recency, depth, intent, and crossover signals — a fan who watched multiple full-game streams is not the same as a fan who opened one welcome email.
- Send Game Day Education (send_game_day_education)
- Sends the education-before-offer sequence that removes first-visit anxiety: parking, seating, food, and schedule logistics.
- Capture Fan Bot Intent (capture_fanbot_intent)
- Captures first-time buyer intent signals from Fan Bot conversations — game day questions, family logistics, seating options — and routes them into the first-timer journey.
- Recommend First Game (recommend_first_game)
- Recommends the right first game for the cohort — family day, themed night, lower-stakes inventory, or an arena-event bridge match — instead of pushing playoff-priced tickets.
- Send First-Timer Offer (send_first_timer_offer)
- Sends the first-game ticket offer once the education and recommendation steps have run.
- Route High NPS to Second Purchase (route_high_nps_to_second_purchase)
- Routes high-satisfaction first-time attendees toward a second purchase and the season-ticket pipeline.
- Send Mass Acquisition Blast (send_mass_acquisition_blast)
- The old-model touch: the same untargeted first-game ticket offer emailed to the entire digital-fan database, with no education or segmentation.
- Flag High-Intent Prospects (flag_high_intent_prospects)
- A proactive mid-run flag that surfaces digital-fan cohorts whose intent signals indicate they are ready for a first-game offer.
- Score Per-Cap Potential (score_per_cap_potential)
- Scores each fan cohort's per-cap concessions upside from ordering behavior — adoption gaps, section spend patterns, and premium potential — instead of treating concessions as a pure operations problem.
- Send Pre-Game Ordering Education (send_pregame_ordering_education)
- Sends the pre-arrival mobile ordering education sequence that removes first-order friction: how to order, where to pick up, and when lines peak.
- Send First-Order Incentive (send_first_order_incentive)
- Delivers a first-order incentive to mobile-ordering non-adopters before arrival — a pre-game offer outperforms an in-venue prompt.
- Recommend Section Ordering (recommend_section_ordering)
- Recommends the right ordering path for the cohort's section — express pickup points and low-wait windows for the sections with the least queue tolerance.
- Send Persona Menu Bundle (send_persona_menu_bundle)
- Sends a persona-matched menu bundle — family value combos for family cohorts, premium items for club sections — instead of one menu for everyone.
- Run Service Speed Recovery (run_service_speed_recovery)
- A touch aimed at repairing in-venue service-speed frustration — queue relief and express-lane routing for cohorts whose satisfaction is line-limited.
- Route High Spend to Premium (route_high_spend_to_premium)
- Routes the highest per-cap cohorts toward premium inventory and club offerings at the marquee event.
- Send Static Menu Promo (send_static_menu_promo)
- The old-model touch: the same untargeted in-venue promo blast for every fan, with no connection between ordering behavior and fan identity.
- Flag Per-Cap Opportunity (flag_per_cap_opportunity)
- A proactive mid-run flag that surfaces cohorts with untapped per-cap concessions upside — high-LTV segments that never adopted mobile ordering.
- Score Cross-Sell Affinity (score_crosssell_affinity)
- Scores each sports-fan cohort's concert cross-sell affinity from in-venue behavior, event crossover attendance, and content engagement — a fan's relationship is with the venue, not the tour.
- Send Venue Content Bridge (send_venue_content_bridge)
- Sends arena programming content that builds familiarity with the venue as an entertainment destination before any ticket ask.
- Send Matched Show Announcement (send_matched_show_announcement)
- Announces the show matched to the cohort's affinity — artist, genre, family show, or comedy night — instead of blasting every show to everyone.
- Offer Cross-Sell Presale (offer_crosssell_presale)
- Offers presale access to sports cohorts as a venue-relationship benefit — early access converts fans who have already crossed the familiarity threshold.
- Send Game-Day Concert Bundle (send_gameday_concert_bundle)
- Sends a game+concert bundle offer that uses the sports habit as the on-ramp to a first concert purchase.
- Offer VIP Concert Upgrade (offer_vip_concert_upgrade)
- Offers premium and corporate cohorts a VIP concert experience — suites, club access, hospitality — matched to their spend profile.
- Route Dual-Buyers to Next Show (route_dual_buyers_to_next_show)
- Routes converted dual-buyers toward the next show on the calendar, turning a first crossover into a repeat events habit.
- Send Mass Concert Blast (send_mass_concert_blast)
- The old-model touch: the same untargeted concert announcement to the whole database, with no bridge from sports-fan identity to concert intent.
- Flag Concert-Affinity Prospects (flag_concert_affinity_prospects)
- A proactive mid-run flag that surfaces sports-fan cohorts whose affinity signals indicate they are ready for a concert cross-sell offer.
- Score Satisfaction Risk (score_satisfaction_risk)
- Scores each fan cohort's satisfaction risk from in-moment signals — low NPS flags, Fan Bot escalations, section hotspots — instead of waiting for the annual survey.
- Route Service Recovery Journey (route_service_recovery_journey)
- Routes cohorts with detected service issues into the recovery journey: acknowledgment and resolution before any commercial message.
- Send Resolution Acknowledgment (send_resolution_acknowledgment)
- Confirms to the affected cohort that its issue was heard and resolved — closing the loop before the fan is asked for anything.
- Suppress Commercial Pressure (suppress_commercial_pressure)
- Holds renewal and offer messaging for cohorts with an open service issue — a renewal ask on top of an unresolved complaint accelerates churn.
- Empower Frontline Resolution (empower_frontline_resolution)
- Resolves section-level service issues on the spot through empowered frontline staff, before the fan leaves the venue.
- Send Goodwill Gesture (send_goodwill_gesture)
- Follows a resolved issue with a goodwill gesture matched to the cohort — repairing the relationship, not just the transaction.
- Route Post-Game Survey (route_postgame_survey)
- Collects post-game micro-survey responses and routes low scores straight into the recovery journey while the experience is fresh.
- Route Recovered to Renewal (route_recovered_to_renewal)
- Routes cohorts whose satisfaction recovered back onto the renewal path once resolution is confirmed.
- Send Annual Survey Blast (send_annual_survey_blast)
- The old-model touch: the annual post-season survey plus a generic apology blast, sent while renewal offers keep flowing to dissatisfied fans.
- Flag Dissatisfaction Risk (flag_dissatisfaction_risk)
- A proactive mid-run flag that surfaces cohorts whose satisfaction propensity is deteriorating before dissatisfaction compounds into churn.
| Tick | Action | Occurred |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | intervention_start | Jun 30, 2026, 8:16 PM |
| 2 | cadence_touch | Jun 30, 2026, 8:17 PM |
| 3 | quiet_tick | Jun 30, 2026, 8:17 PM |
| 4 | cadence_touch | Jun 30, 2026, 8:25 PM |
| 5 | quiet_tick | Jun 30, 2026, 8:34 PM |
| 6 | service_recovery | Jun 30, 2026, 8:34 PM |
| 7 | quiet_tick | Jun 30, 2026, 8:56 PM |
| 8 | cadence_touch | Jun 30, 2026, 9:00 PM |
| 9 | quiet_tick | Jun 30, 2026, 9:10 PM |
| 10 | cadence_touch | Jun 30, 2026, 9:30 PM |
| 11 | urgency_touch | Jun 30, 2026, 10:00 PM |
| 12 | urgency_touch | Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM |
Cohort State by Persona
Engagement and churn risk are synthetic 0–100 scores, not measurements of real fans. Renewal likelihood is the simulated probability that a persona renews at that tick. Reaction labels describe how the cohort simulated responding to the latest action. These are synthetic cohort records, not real fan records or real customer predictions.
| Tick | Stage | Engagement | Churn Risk | Renewal Likelihood | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 38% | delayed |
| 2 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 38% | delayed |
| 3 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 38% | delayed |
| 4 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 38% | delayed |
| 5 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 38% | delayed |
| 6 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 41% | interested |
| 7 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 41% | delayed |
| 8 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 41% | ignored |
| 9 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 41% | delayed |
| 10 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 41% | ignored |
| 11 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 41% | ignored |
| 12 | first-touch | 35 | 62 | 38% | churn_risk_increased |
| Tick | Stage | Engagement | Churn Risk | Renewal Likelihood | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 2 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 3 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 4 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 5 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 6 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 7 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 8 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 9 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 10 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 69% | delayed |
| 11 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 71% | upgraded |
| 12 | engaged | 74 | 31 | 71% | ignored |
| Tick | Stage | Engagement | Churn Risk | Renewal Likelihood | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 42% | delayed |
| 2 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 42% | delayed |
| 3 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 42% | delayed |
| 4 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 48% | positive_signal |
| 5 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 48% | delayed |
| 6 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 48% | ignored |
| 7 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 47% | delayed |
| 8 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 47% | ignored |
| 9 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 47% | delayed |
| 10 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 50% | interested |
| 11 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 50% | ignored |
| 12 | first-purchase | 62 | 58 | 50% | ignored |
| Tick | Stage | Engagement | Churn Risk | Renewal Likelihood | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 23% | interested |
| 2 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 23% | ignored |
| 3 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 23% | delayed |
| 4 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 23% | ignored |
| 5 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 23% | delayed |
| 6 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 26% | interested |
| 7 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 25% | delayed |
| 8 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 25% | ignored |
| 9 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 25% | delayed |
| 10 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 25% | ignored |
| 11 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 25% | ignored |
| 12 | lapsed | 18 | 78 | 25% | ignored |
| Tick | Stage | Engagement | Churn Risk | Renewal Likelihood | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 80% | interested |
| 2 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 81% | interested |
| 3 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 81% | delayed |
| 4 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 81% | ignored |
| 5 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 81% | delayed |
| 6 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 81% | ignored |
| 7 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 80% | delayed |
| 8 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 82% | interested |
| 9 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 82% | delayed |
| 10 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 81% | ignored |
| 11 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 83% | upgraded |
| 12 | loyal | 91 | 22 | 83% | ignored |
| Tick | Stage | Engagement | Churn Risk | Renewal Likelihood | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 52% | delayed |
| 2 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 56% | interested |
| 3 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 55% | delayed |
| 4 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 55% | ignored |
| 5 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 55% | delayed |
| 6 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 55% | ignored |
| 7 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 55% | delayed |
| 8 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 57% | interested |
| 9 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 57% | delayed |
| 10 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 57% | ignored |
| 11 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 57% | ignored |
| 12 | awareness | 44 | 48 | 56% | ignored |